Financial Analysis Under risk Conditions of Milk Production Systems at the Paraiba Valley, SP

Authors

  • Afonso Aurélio de Carvalho Peres Secretaria de Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo, Agência Paulista de Tecnologia dos Agronegócios, Pólo Regional de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico dos Agronegócios do Vale do Paraíba, Pindamonhangaba, SP
  • Paulo Marcelo de Souza Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense, Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias Agropecuárias, Laboratório de Engenharia Agrícola, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ
  • Hernan Maldonado Vasquez Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense, Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias Agropecuárias, Laboratório de Zootecnia e Nutrição Animal, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ
  • José Fernando Coelho da Silva Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense, Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias Agropecuárias, Laboratório de Zootecnia e Nutrição Animal, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ
  • Carlos Augusto Brandão de Carvalho Secretaria de Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo, Agência Paulista de Tecnologia dos Agronegócios, Pólo Regional de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico dos Agronegócios do Vale do Paraíba, Pindamonhangaba, SP
  • João Batista Pereira de Carvalho Secretaria de Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado de São Paulo, Agência Paulista de Tecnologia dos Agronegócios, Pólo Regional de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico dos Agronegócios do Vale do Paraíba, Pindamonhangaba, SP
  • Mirton José Frota Morenz Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Zootecnia, Departamento de Nutrição Animal e Pastagem, Seropédica, RJ

Keywords:

economic viability, milk cattle, Monte Carlo?s simulations, pasture, roughage supplementation

Abstract

The financial risk of milk production systems was evaluated in mombaçagrass (Panicum maximum, Jacq., cv. Mombaça) pasture with roughage supplementations, during the dry season, at the area of River Paraiba valley, South of São Paulo State, Brazil. The milk production systems were: PS1 – mombaçagrass pasture + black-oat (Avena strigosa, Schreb, cv. preta) pasture, PS2 - mombaçagrass pasture + sugarcane (Saccharum spp., L., cv. IAC 86-2480) and urea and PS3 - mombaçagrass pasture + sorghum (Sorghum bicolor, L., cv. Volumax) silage. Starting from the construction of cash flow spreadsheets, with 12 year-old horizon, the ten main items (factors) were identified to be more sensitive to the changes of prices and have larger impacts in the economical results of each production system. The risk analysis was done through Monte Carlo’s Simulation, seeking to determine the probability of occurrence of each system to become unable, due to the prices oscillations in the market. The evaluated production systems present low financial risk, when submitted to the discount rate of 6% a year, this rate is similar to that in the savings account, in the same period. Among the systems, the one that presents the largest financial risk of becoming unable is the production system that uses roughage supplementation with sorghum silage, during the dry season.

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Published

2008-01-18

Issue

Section

QUANTITATIVE METHODS AND ECONOMY

How to Cite

Financial Analysis Under risk Conditions of Milk Production Systems at the Paraiba Valley, SP. (2008). Bulletin of Animal Husbandry, 65(1), 35-42. http://bia.iz.sp.gov.br/index.php/bia/article/view/1146

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